Hey all! Another player and I worked out the probability of getting mythics and legends for some of the sales. This probability may not work for future sales since it all depends on percentages for specific Curios and enhancements, but it works for some. I bolded and underlined the final probabilities and the important stuff in case you don't feel like looking at the math. I'm only doing probability for 5 and 10 disc (if this option is available) sales since the probability for 1 disc is exactly what's listed in the sale.

For

For

Oh! I almost forgot something (meaning I forgot it twice in previous edits and decided to do another edit to put it in ). If anyone wants me to find a probability for a specific Curio, just let me know in the comments below or in the game and I'll try to get back to you as soon as possible (I'm *MOD*Starlight if you didn't know). Make sure you tell me what type of sale it is and if you plan to do 5 or 10 discs to get that Curio.

**:**__Current (at least when I put them in here) Sales__For

**that show a**__promo sales__**chance for**__2%__**and a**__mythics__**chance for**__12%__**for**__legends____, these are the chances for a__**5 discs****:**__mythic or legend__- For
, the shown chance of getting a__5 discs__for one of these discs is .14 (14%). So, the chance of not getting a mythic or legend (which is so much easier to calculate than the opposite) is .86 (86%). To calculate the chance of not getting a mythic or legend, you multiply .86x.86x.86...until you are multiplying it 5 times (.86__mythic or legend__^{5}). This'll give you .4704270176 (47.04270176%), which is the probability of not getting a mythic or a legend. So, subtract this from 1 and you'll get .5295729824 (52.95729824%), which is the chance of getting a mythic or legend. This is basically achance.__53%__

**with a**__boost sales__**chance to get a**__6%__**and a**__heroic boost____chance to get a__**24%****for**__ultimate boost__**here's the probability of getting a**__5 discs__**:**__heroic or ultimate boost__- The chance of getting a
in one of these__heroic or ultimate boost__is .3 (30%) so the chance of not getting a heroic or ultimate boost is .7 (70%). Multiple .7x.7x.7...until you are multiplying that number 5 times (.7__5 discs__^{5}), which gives you .16807 (16.807%). Wow...this is such a nice decimal... Anyway, subtract that number from one and you get .83193 (83.193%), which is the final probability. This is basically.__83%__

**:**__Older Sales__For

**that show a**__promo sales__**chance for**__2%__**, these are the chances for only a**__mythics__**:**__mythic__- For
, the shown chance of getting a__5 discs__for one of these discs is .2 (2%), so the chance of not getting a mythic is .98 (98%). So, multiply .98x.98x.98....until you are multiplying it 5 times (.98__mythic__^{5}). This'll give you .9039207968 (90.39207968%). Subtract this from 1 and you have the chance of getting a mythic, which is .0960792032 (9.60792032%). Basically achance.**10%**

**that show a**__promo sales____chance for__**1.5%**__, a__**mythics****chance for**__3.5%____, and a__**legends****chance for**__7.2%__**for**__epics____with a__**5/10 discs****, these are the chances for a**__guaranteed epic or better for 10 discs__**:**__legend or mythic__- For
**5 discs**for one of those 5 discs is .05 (5%). So, the chance of not getting a mythic or legend is .95 (95%). To calculate the chance of not getting a mythic or legend, you multiply .95x.95x.95....until you are multiplying it 5 times (.95**mythic or legend**^{5}). This'll give you .7737809375 (77.37809375%), which is the probability or not getting a mythic or legend. So, to finish, subtract that number from 1 (or 100 if you're using percents) and you'll get the probability. .2262190625 (or 22.62190625%). Basically achance.**23%** - For
, it's a bit trickier (meaning a lot trickier). I have no clue how that guaranteed epic or better Curio affects the rest of the probability. Do 9/10 discs have normal probability and the last one has special probability? And would that special probability have the same ratios for epic and above Curios as the ones listed in the sale (the ratios being out of 1 instead of .122).? Or would the 10/10 discs have normal probability if one of the earlier ones gave you an epic? If anyone does know, please tell me. I'd like to have the correct probability. For now, I'll give the probability of 9/10 discs with normal probability and the last one with special probability with the same ratios as listed in the sale. The shown chance of getting a**10 discs**of those 10 discs is .05 (5%). So, the chance of not getting a mythic or legend is .95 (95%). For the 9 normal probability discs, you use a similar method as above with the 5 discs. You multiple .95x.95x.95...until you are multiplying it 9 times (.95**mythic or legend**^{9}). This'll give you .6302494097 (or 63.02494097%). Now for that extremely annoying 10th disc.*groans* So, once again, the chance for a mythic or legend is .05 (5%). All of the probabilities of epic Curios and better adds up to .122 (12.2%). The chance of the mythics or legends for the disc where only the epic or better probabilities exist is .05/.122, which is .4098360656 (40.98360656%). Then, the probability of not getting a mythic or legend for this special disc is that long decimal subtracted from 1, which is .5901639344 (59.01639344%). So, the probability of not getting a mythic or legend in these 10 discs (9 normal and 1 special) is .6302494097x.5901639344, which is .3719504713 (37.19504713%). Subtract this from one and the probability of getting a mythic or legend is .6280495287 (or 62.8049587%). Basically achance.**63%**

^{}Let's say you really want to get a mythic and don't care about legends. Well, here's the probability of getting a**for**__mythic____with a__**promo sales**__chance for__**1.5%**__and a__**mythics****chance for**__10.7%__**for**__epics and legends____with a__**5/10 discs****:**__guaranteed epic or better for 10 discs__- For
, the shown chance of a**5 discs**for one of those 5 discs is .015 (1.5%). So, the chance of not getting a mythic is .985 (98.5%). So, to find the chance of not getting a mythic in the 5 discs, multiply .985x.985x.985...until you are multiplying it 5 times (or .985**mythic**^{5}). This'll give you .9272165024 (92.72165024%). Subtract this number from 1 and this'll give you .0727834976 (7.27834976%), which is the chance of getting a mythic in the 5 discs. This is basically.**7%** - For
for**10 discs**__mythics__^{9}). This'll give you .872822784 (87.2822784%). Now for the special disc, the probabilities for epic and better Curios add up to .122 (12.2%). The mythics make up .015 (1.5%) of that. So, the chance of getting a mythic from this special disc with only epic or better Curios is .015/.122, which is .1229508197 (12.29508197%). Subtract that number from one and the chance of not getting a mythic from this is .8770491803 (87.70491803%). So, the probability of not getting a mythic in these 10 discs (9 normal and 1 special) is .872822784x.8770491803, which is .7655085073 (76.55085073%). Subtract this from 1 and you get .2344914927 (23.44914927%), which is the odds of getting a mythic in the 10 discs. This is basically a__23%__

__with a__**premium sales****chance for a**__4.5%__**and a**__mythic__**chance for a**__10.5%__**for**__legend__**, here's the probability of getting a**__5 discs__**:**__mythic or legend__- Since the chance of getting a
in one of these**mythic or legend**is .15 (15%), subtract that number from 1 and you'll get the probability of not getting a mythic or legend, which is .85 (85%). So, to find the probability of all the discs combined, multiply .85x.85x.85...until you are multiplying it 5 times (.85__5 discs__^{5}). This'll give you .4437053125 (44.37053125%). Then, subtract that long decimal from 1 and you'll get the final probability, which is .5562946875 (55.62946875%). Basically.**56%**

**with a**__premium sales__**chance for mythics, here's the probability of getting a mythic for**__4.5%__**:**__5 discs__- Since the chance of getting a
in one of these__mythic__is .045 (4.5%), the chance of not getting a mythic is that number subtracted from 1, which is .955 (95.5%). Multiply .955x.955x.955...until you are multiplying that number 5 times (.955__5 discs__^{5}) to get the chance of not getting a mythic for all 5 discs. This'll give you .7943590686 (79.43590686%). Subtract that number from 1 and you'll get .2056409314 (20.56409314%), which is the final probability. This is basically achance.__21____%__

Oh! I almost forgot something (meaning I forgot it twice in previous edits and decided to do another edit to put it in ). If anyone wants me to find a probability for a specific Curio, just let me know in the comments below or in the game and I'll try to get back to you as soon as possible (I'm *MOD*Starlight if you didn't know). Make sure you tell me what type of sale it is and if you plan to do 5 or 10 discs to get that Curio.

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